Emmanuel Macron becomes next French President – victory or ambiguity ?

To begin with, let’s do some fact checks.

This was the second time in the French presidential election history when the electorates had left with hard choice, to win over their difference of political and ideological convictions, and moral dilemma to confront the National Front party, the extreme right political force. In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen, a colonialist and fascist demagogue, made it to the 2^nd round in presidential election upsetting the then Socialist Party candidate Lionel Jospin. The result of the first round had shocked the French society to its core, and the people united to vote for the republican candidate Jacques Chirac to make barrier against FN. It was an election submerged in shame and the sense of guilt. 

But there are a number of significant changes appeared in French Society over the last 15 years. The united spirit of fighting National Front has waned.  None of the two main political parties, Republican and Socialist, are in the second round of election. Striking division between rich and poor, resulting gradual decrease of purchasing capacity of common people and diminution of public service system, electoral win of Donald Trump in USA, Brexit have instilled the idea in people’s mind that the Globalisation and European Union are failing. The sentiment of Nation State and protection of its boundary is growing day-by-day. Civil war in Lybia, Syria and Iraq and old French colonies in Africa created a constant flow of refugees adding additional pressure on public service and infrastructure. The increasing number of attacks perpetrated by home-grown and foreign Islamist terrorists have also unveiled the problem of integration of youngest generation of migrant families originated from old French colonies predominantly Muslims in the French society. Unemployment rate in 2002 was 7.8%. It has crossed 10% in 2017 and 23% among the younger generation under 24 years.

And the top of it, the current president Francois Holland has a low public approval rate, far below 20%, which pushed him to abandon his bid for a second term, unprecedented in the electoral history of the fifth French Republic since its inception on 4^th October 1958.

Emmanuel Macron a young man of 39 years, no political experience so far, and running a political movement “En Marche (Moving On)”, founded only a year back, ex deputy consultant of current president Francois Holland who became the finance minister in the 2^nd government under his presidency, who resigned from the government in August 2016, promoting the politics of neither left nor right not even centrist, which has seduced an important section of political class and of the population, and topped the first round of election with almost 24% of the vote, who is also a divisive character who carries an image of representing big bank and financial institutions, served as an investment banker-director in Rothschild Bank in the past. He is also seen having economic project, which can pave the way for the Elites to control more on economic means thus creating a considerable section of Relative poor in the society.

On the other hand, Marine Le Pen has deviated the Front National party quite a lot from its extreme right and fascist agendas by sidelining her father Jean Marie Le Pen, to become closer to the core socio-economic issues confronted by the common French people, the primary victim of poverty after the globalisation of economy, thus bringing out the party from previously social stigmatisation and succeeded finding political allies. Also increasing law and order problems, terrorist attacks and mass Muslim migration, have also helped rallying a sizeable number of police, military and administrative employees towards the National Front.

Presidential Elections 2002

Total registered voters - 41.2 millions

Voted 79,71%, i.e., 32.83 millions

Blank and invalid voters, i.e. 1.76 million

Abstention 20%, i.e., 8.3 millions

Jacques Chirac – 25.53 millions – 82,21 % (62% of total registered voters)

Jean-Marie Le Pen – 5.52 millions – 17.79% (13,41% of total registered voters)

Presidential Elections 2017

Total registered voters - 45.68 millions

Voted 74,56%, i.e., 35.46 millions

8,51% blank votes and 2,96% invalid votes  (4.1 millions)

Abstention 25,44%, i.e. 12,10 millions

Emmanuel Macron –20.75 millions - 66,1% (43.63% of total registered voters)

Marine Le Pen – 10.64 millions – 33,9% (22.38% of total registered voters)

French electorates had hard choice to make.

Two candidates represent two extreme different interest groups rising from the crisis of capitalist market system, Emmanuel Macron for Globalisation, i.e., further opening up market to private sector players minimizing the role of the State in people’s life and a broader Europe, and Marine Le Pen for Nationalism, a strong State with public services limited to its citizens, and reestablishment of State boundary to get hold on immigration.

Though Marine Le Pen has lost her bid to the presidency in a large margin, but her party’s increasing social acceptance, twofold electorates than it had in 2002, has raised questions far beyond the presidential election as the Parliament election is scheduled in mid-June. At present, the Front National has only 2 MPs among 577 seats. The Republican Party and the Socialist Party are fractured within.  Emmanuel Macron has broaden up his movement into “La République en marche (The Republic on move)” to incorporate people from different political ideas with an objective to win 289 parliamentary seats to govern independently.

But no one can ignore Jean Luc Mélenchon, the candidate of the movement “La France Insoumise (Unsubmissive France)”, who came fourth with 19.6% of popular vote (7.5 millions) in the first round, who has replaced the traditional Socialist Party singlehandedly with his hard-core leftist socio-economic agendas which is also a growing trend in Europe, specially in its southern part, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy.

On 8^th May, day after the final round of presidential election, a huge march took place in Paris, primarily the supporters of Jean Luc Mélenchon with other extreme left factions and ecologists to voice their concern on the win of Emmanuel Macron, making it clear that his election is the vote of conscience of people against Fascism, not “Carte Blanche.”

The result of presidential election is not clear yet.

- Jayanta Chakrabarty

http://www.anandabazar.com/editorial/result-out-of-vote-in-france-but-the-consequence-is-unknown-1.610770?ref=editorial-new-stry